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DESERTEC-AUSTRALIA ROADMAP: INTRODUCTION DESERTEC-Elsewhere News: "Concentrating
solar power
is poised
for breakaway
growth not because
it is
cleaner
than coal-fired
power but
because
it is
cheaper.
It just
happens
to be cleaner
incidentally."
"Unlike fossil and nuclear fuels, solar energy has no risk of fuel price volatility or delivery risk."
"Australia is the continental area that has the greatest intensity of sunlight because we have the desert region. You could run something like the Basslink undersea connector to link with the Indonesian grid and you could supply Indonesia with electricity."
"Australia and its desert regions have a massive opportunity to develop an entire green energy economy that is based on solar, wind and geothermal technology .Australia needs to consider making transformative decisions in relation to moving towards a green economy."
“By 2011, concentrating solar power will
be more competitive than fossil fuels. We are poised for explosive, breakaway
growth in CSP not because we are clean but because we are cheaper. We just
happen to be cleaner, too.”
"A solar dish farm 100 miles by 100 miles in the southwestern U.S. could provide as much electricity as is needed to power the entire United States."
"Solar thermal can be the big gorilla on the grid. We can supply over 90 per cent of Australia's generation from this source on a continuing basis."
"One
kilometer square of arid land can continuously and indefinitely generate as much electricity
as any conventional 50 MW coal - or gas fired power station."
"Each year, each square kilometre of hot desert receives solar energy equivalent to 1.5 million barrels of oil."
"The solar energy arriving per year on one square kilometer of desert is on average 80 million Terawatt hours/year. This is 750 times 2005's fossil fuel energy consumption, 250 times 2050's demand."
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There are two kinds of solar energy: solar photovoltaic and solar thermal energy. Solar photovoltaics converts solar energy directly into electricity. Solar panels on placed on rooftops and generate on-site power for localised use. Solar thermal converts sunlight into heat. The best known form of solar thermal energy is solar hot water. But there's also concentrating solar thermal power (usually called concentrating solar power, or CSP). Concentrating solar power reflects and concentrates sunlight to create high-temperature heat, usually to create steam to drive traditional turbines. This power source is best harnessed through large, centralised power plants located in desert regions with high direct normal radiation. Direct normal radiation is strong sun in desert areas with little cloud cover or atmospheric moisture. The graphic below shows how concentrating solar power works in the case of parabolic troughs, the most developed form of the technology. With parabolic troughs, concentrated sunshine is focused onto a central receiver pipe to heat a liquid to 400-1,000C. The heat is then used to create steam to drive a traditional steam turbine. Other forms of concentrating solar power are solar towers (lower left), solar dishes (lower middle) and and linear fresnel reflectors (lower right). Solar towers and dishes reach the highest efficiencies (ie highest temperatures), but also have highest manufacturing and construction costs. Fresnel reflectors have the lowest efficiencies in creating heat but this is offset by lower manufacturing and construction costs.
Concentrating Solar Power is Here, Now and ProvenParabolic trough concentrating solar power plants have been generating electricity for the California grid since the 1980s. Concentrating solar power is proven. In the Mojave Desert, 350 megawatts of capacity (roughly enough to power one third of Canberra) has been operating for the past 25 years. Half of all solar electricity ever generated has come from concentrating solar power.
Concentrating solar power is an enormous energy resource.The entire world's electricity demand could be satisfied by a hypothetical concentrating solar power mirror field in Outback Australia 432 kilometres on a side. Global primary energy demand (ie all energy usage ranging from electricity to transport fuels on down to energy sources such as biomass wood fires used by the world's poor) could be satisfied through a solar field 1,230 kilometres on a side located in central Outback Australia -- a region with few other uses. In the graphic below, the sizes of various hypothetical mirror fields needed to satisfy electricity needs ranging from Australia to the world are overlaid on the Australian continent. Looking at the graphic below, Australia's electricity needs could be met by a mirror field 50 kilometres on a side represented by the tiny square in the northwest corner of New South Wales. Above that, a mirror field 164 kilometres square could power China. Above that, a mirror field 223 kilometres square could power the US and a mirror field 432 kilometres square could power the world's electricity needs.
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| Concentrating solar power coupled with solar salt storage and natural gas turbines can create 24x7 power. | Solar salt storage facilities can 'hold' excess solar heat. |
| Source: Solar Millennium | |
Concentrating solar power now generates electricity, without molten salt storage, for about US12c/kwh and falling rapidly. Coupled with molten salt and natural gas backup, a hybrid solar-gas-molten salt power plant can today generate electricity for about 8c/kwh. This is roughly the price new coal-fired power plant equipped with carbon capture and storage might achieve in 2015.
Furthermore, hybrid concentrating solar power/natural gas plants offer electricity supply flexibility coal-fired power cannot. For instance, during a very hot weather afternoon in summer, a solar plant with storage and natural gas backup can 'triple up' electricity generation by running the natural gas turbine and the solar field at the same time as drawing down on stored heat to deal with grid demand spikes. This makes the overall electricity system more efficient because less 'spinning capacity' is needed on the grid to prevent blackouts. This, in turn, lower electricity costs to consumers.
During the first wave of investment in concentrating solar power (between 1983 and 1989), concentrating solar power prices fell by half in just seven years (from US25c/kwh to 12c/kwh). In the 1990s, low oil prices prevented new capacity from being built. But today, with oil prices well over $100, money and brains are flowing back into CSP. Prices are rapidly falling again. Experts expect current concentrating solar prices of about 12c/kwh (without molten storage) will halve again by 2015, probably sooner. That will put CSP on a price par with existing natural gas and coal-fired power generation even before carbon penalties are added to gas and coal.
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| Concentrating solar power prices fell by half in the 1980s. Prices are set to fall again by half in coming years as more CSP projects come on line globally. |
| Source: US National Renewable Energy Laboratory |
The compound effects of ongoing innovation are rapidly bringing these technologies to price competitiveness with fossil fuels. The 'crossover' should occur around 2015. Carbon capture and storage has no similar potential. It is unproven, has limited price reduction potential and isn't infinitely scalable like solar.
Indeed, if 3.2c worth of carbon costs (derived by taking $40 per tonne carbon prices and multiplying them by coal-fired power emissions of .8 kg/kwh) are added to coal's current 3c/kwh generation costs and another 1.5c/kwh is added for upstream carbon emissions of mining and delivering coal to power stations, concentrating solar power with solar thermal storage and natural gas backup is already price competitive with coal-fired power since both now cost about 8c/kwh, all costs included.
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| Renewable energy, led by high-volume concentrating solar power, geothermal and wind, offers the prospect of low-cost, clean, abundant energy in coming years |
| Sources: ABARE, IEA, IPCC, DESERTEC |
Investment markets are sensing the dynamics in the concentrating solar power market. Money is flowing rapidly into the industry. Global capacity is expanding. In 2007, the first new concentrating solar power plant since 1987 went online: the 64MW "Nevada Solar One" project outside Las Vegas, Nevada. In Spain, 50MW of parabolic trough capacity named "Andasol 1" is also now online. Its capacity will be tripled to 150MW in coming years.
Natural gas rich Abu Dhabi also is investing in concentrating solar power to provide electricity for its MASDAR 'green city.' In California, proposals for nearly 3,000MW of new CSP capacity are now before permitting authorities, and 7,000MW of new capacity is planned worldwide.
Given that CSP plants take much less time to construct than nuclear or coal, much of this new CSP could be online by 2012. This will spur a virtuous circle of deployment and innovation that will lower costs. Planned capacity expansions worldwide are expected to swell the industry 15 times over in the next five years, providing a firm commercial platform for future growth.
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| Huge capacity expansions are planned for concentrating solar power in coming years | |||||||||
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